Lawson Edges Toward Racing Bulls F1 Stay for 2027

Liam Lawson looks set to stay at Racing Bulls for 2027, and the case for keeping him has grown harder to argue against. A final decision still sits with Red Bull's main shareholders, but The Race has learned that Lawson is on track to get the nod. An announcement is expected before the Las Vegas round.

Why Lawson's season carries weight

Lawson has spent weeks waiting to hear whether he keeps his seat or whether Red Bull junior Nikola Tsolov gets promoted to partner Arvid Lindblad. The choice has been finely balanced for a while, and the team has weighed several routes before settling on a direction.

On paper, Lawson makes a strong case. He sits ninth in the drivers' standings, and his points have been central to Racing Bulls holding fifth in the constructors' battle. Keeping him also gives Lindblad a clear benchmark. Lindblad is in his second F1 season, and a steady, experienced team-mate is the most direct way to measure how far he has come.

Red Bull's junior programme complicates things. The company invests heavily in young drivers to feed its senior team, and Tsolov's Formula 2 campaign has put him firmly on the radar. He is second in the standings heading into the final two rounds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. If title rival Rafael Camara stays at Haas, Tsolov could be handed a straightforward route to the crown. A promotion would also let Red Bull test him against F1 machinery as early as possible.

There's a counterargument too. If Racing Bulls is meant to be a breeding ground for future Red Bull talent, Lawson has already had his chance at the senior team. That history makes it harder to justify a return to the sister squad as the path forward.

The triple-header that tipped the balance

Racing Bulls reportedly saw its drivers' performances across Austin, Mexico and Brazil as critical to its 2027 call. Team principal Alan Permane wasn't giving much away at Interlagos. "We're trying to apply a little bit of science, and that takes some time," he said. "So we are looking at everything and studying, analysing, and time is on our side. We're not in a rush to do anything, and I'm very confident the right decision will be made."

Tsolov helped his cause with a strong FP1 showing in Mexico. Lawson had a rougher weekend there. He picked up a grid penalty after a practice clash that also irritated Red Bull's Max Verstappen, but he recovered with a strong drive to seventh in the race.

Brazil is where Lawson made his case most clearly. He started third, passed Lando Norris early to run as high as second, and finished eighth on the road. A Charles Leclerc penalty promoted him to seventh. That kind of form is hard to ignore when you're deciding a seat for the next season, and it appears to have made dropping him very difficult to justify.

Who actually makes the call

Lawson has Permane's backing. The team principal has been impressed by his speed and consistency this year, and that support carries extra weight after Permane's recent team principal contract extension. His authority within the Red Bull structure has grown.

Permane isn't the only voice, though. Lawson was candid after the Brazilian Grand Prix. "Obviously, they'll decide on what they do there. I feel like Alan's been extremely supportive to me. I appreciate that a lot. And I've enjoyed working closely with him and with the team this year. But, yeah, obviously, it's a big organisation."

Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies stepped back from the decision. He said it wasn't his call, and that he'd only be asked for an opinion. "The Racing Bulls driver decision is down to Racing Bulls," he said. He explained that while the programme is shared, promotions to Red Bull Racing depend on how drivers perform in their F1 stints at Racing Bulls.

Mekies was still generous about Lawson's year. Lawson stood in for the injured Isack Hadjar after the summer break, and Mekies praised his work across those three races. "He has done a very good job with us in the three races where he had to jump in," he said. "When he returned back to Racing Bulls, he has shown on track another step again. What he showed this weekend is the perfect representation of how strongly he is now performing."

That leaves the shareholders with the final sign-off. Going against the team's preference would be unusual, and it would be a bigger ask so soon after Permane's contract was extended. Replacing an in-form incumbent with an unproven rookie also carries real financial risk. Lawson has been central to Racing Bulls chasing a fifth-place constructors' finish, which would be the team's best ever and is worth millions in extra prize money.

The middle-ground options

Permane hinted at a resolution that would leave everyone content. "I realise it's frustrating for our drivers," he said. "I realise it's frustrating for everyone else, but we want to get it right, and we will get it right. I'm sure when we announce it in the coming weeks, everyone will be happy."

One idea was to sign Tsolov for 2028 and turn next year into a contest between Lawson and Lindblad for the future team-mate slot. That doesn't appear to be seriously on the table, since any deal is likely to cover 2027 only. A more likely shape is Lawson and Lindblad racing together, with Tsolov embedded as reserve driver and taking part in all four rookie practice outings.

Lawson isn't counting on anything yet. He has noticed how many people in the paddock think dropping him after this campaign would be a mistake. "I appreciate all the support. I've seen it over the last few weeks. It's honestly really nice to see. Obviously, I would love it if it was more from a team," he said. "But at the moment I'm just trying to enjoy driving the car because, with everything else going on, I don't really know what else I'm meant to do."

My read is that the shareholders will follow the team's lead. Tsolov's rise is real, but Lawson's results give Racing Bulls a benchmark and a points platform that's hard to walk away from. Watch for the announcement ahead of Las Vegas. That's when we'll find out whether Tsolov's 2027 story is delayed or whether his reserve role becomes the real plan.